NFL 2K14

FOOTBAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAALL predictions in one sentence or less, as per tradition.
( * for wild cards)

AFC

EAST

Patriots – Yeah.

Dolphins – Not an inspiring bunch behind the perennial leader.

Bills – Might not be terrible, depends on Manuel.

Jets – This, on the other hand, will be hilariously bad.

NORTH

Bengals – I’m not happy about it, because Dalton sucks, but they’re still the best.

Ravens – Hoping for some Ray Rice karma here.

Steelers – Feels like a 7-9 season.

Browns – Jason Whitlock’s “Johnny Bench” nickname for Manziel is the greatest thing.

SOUTH

Colts – Could be 10-6, but still the class of the division.

Texans* – Fitzpatrick being the QB is frightening for them, though.

Titans – Hard to see them getting much better.

Jaguars – Hard to see them getting much worse.

WEST

Broncos – Probably not as dominant as a year ago.

Chargers* – It’s less that they’re better…

Chiefs – …and more that the Chiefs will be worse.

Raiders – Another couple of years of awful football awaits.

NFC

EAST

Eagles – Fun to watch, and mostly good.

Giants – They zig when everyone thinks they’ll zag.

Cowboys – That defense… woof.

Redskins – Trying to make RGIII into a pocket passer seems like an odd fit.

NORTH

Bears – Sorry, Dennis.

Packers* – Always seem to get hurt, lost some of the offense.

Lions – All sizzle, no steak.

Vikings – Upward trending, but a few high fences to leap.

SOUTH

Saints – Though it’ll be close.

Falcons* – Back in black, and hopefully not as snakebitten with injuries.

Buccaneers – Sneaky good late last year.

Panthers – Lost a lot of key contributors.

WEST

Seahawks – A really, really good team, and it kills me to say that.

49ers – Feel like Harbaugh starts to wear on them this year.

Cardinals – A Carson Palmer team almost made the playoffs, and I’m not sure how it happened.

Rams – Bradford done, and so are they, even with a good defense.

Revisionist history: NFL 2K12

Looking back at predictions! Fun!

AFC

EAST

Patriots – Because their management is way better than the Sawx.

Actual finish: First. No back pats, here. Still the best team in this division easily. A surprising injection of youth means the New England machine gets to roll on in a weak division. Hard to see any challengers arising from the rest of this mess.

Bills* – Wishcasting, certainly. But assuming the defenses are a saw-off, I like Ryan Fitzpatrick…

Actual finish: Last (tie). I apparently forgot about Fitzpatrick’s second half. The Bills defense wasn’t good after some big money being thrown around in the offseason. It’s a weak division, but there’s not enough top end talent for the Bills to break through. Unless Fitzpatrick gets good again, there’s a few more mediocre years coming.

Jets – …more than Marktim Sancheztebow.

Actual finish: Last (tie). And Tebow didn’t even play when the season got out of hand! The Jets, too, have an uncertain future: there’s not a lot of youth, they’re unsettled at QB, and there’s not a lot of money to spend. Outside of that, they’ll be fine.

Dolphins – May actually pass the Jets, if things break right. Too bad they’re playing a rookie QB.

Actual finish: Second.  Rookie QB Ryan Tanehill held his own, and their defense was better than Buffalo’s. They will probably get some sleeper buzz next year if they can improve in the offseason, given the rest of the division. Hard to see them making a serious run at the playoffs otherwise.

NORTH

Steelers – Terrified of this season for them- old on defense, O-line still awful, Ben already hurt- but still a clear favourite.

Actual finish: Third. Turns out my terror was justified, and I should have seeded them lower. Their defense did get old, their offensive line still sucked, and the injury to Big Ben submarined an already leaking ship. There’s some changes coming here. As a Steelers fan, I don’t know if I can talk about this rationally. Let’s just move on.

Ravens* – Again assuming defensive equality (with the Steelers), their QB is worse.

Actual finish: First, won the Super Bowl. They got good at the right time after backing into the playoffs. At least Joe Flacco and Paul Kruger will be overpaid, Ed Reed might leave, and Ray Lewis will be gone, and people can keep ignoring that he was no worse than an accessory to a double murder.

Yeah, I DEFINITELY can’t talk about this team rationally. Screw the Ravens.

Bengals – Some hope, but let’s see them beat a good team. Could sneak into a wildcard.

Actual finish: Second, got second wild card. Pretty close on the thinking here. Might be better than the Steelers next year. Uuuuuugh.

Brown – Still the Browns, thankfully.

Actual finish: Last. Yep, still the Browns.

SOUTH

Texans – Thought about picking them last year, didn’t have the balls. Don’t need ’em this time. To pick the Texans, I mean.

Actual finish: First. Another easy call. With young players on defense, and loads of skill on offense, these Texans are setting up to be the class of the division for a while. Also, haha, balls.

Titans – Mostly by default, I think this is a step back year under a younger QB.

Actual finish: Third. Right on the thinking, wrong on position. And we’re not sure if the young guy’s any good. If I’m the Titans, I’m concerned about that going forward. Could be a couple 6-10 seasons in their future unless they sort out their identity.

Jaguars – Not sure what they’re good at any more.

Actual finish: Last. Still don’t know what they’re good at. Justin Blackmon and Maurice Jones-Drew provide some talent, but that QB situation is just awful, and the defense doesn’t provide much either. In a tough division, they’ll be the doormats for a while yet.

Colts – They’ll need to be Luck-y to get higher. Eh? Eh?

Actual finish: Second, won first wild card. I am rewarded appropriately for my horrible pun by being horribly wrong. Though advanced metrics don’t like the Colts, they’re still the second best team in the division easily. Luck was part of a quick turnaround for them, and they’ll be back in the hunt next year.

WEST

Broncos – Assuming Peyton Manning doesn’t snap his neck. Might be an 8-8 season again.

Actual finish: First. Manning, uh… did just fine. The Broncos rolled into a first round bye before getting upset by the Ravens. Overall, they have to be very pleased with how things have gone since the trade for Manning, and young defensive pieces ensure a bright future, even if Peyton’s only got a few years left.

Chargers – Getting older, not better. The Rivers will soon run dry here (BAHAHA alright no more puns)

Actual finish: Second. This pun turned out a little more prescient, as Rivers strangely had a bad year. Maybe firing Norv Turner (FINALLY) will help, but the talent well has run dry. They need a lot of help to be relevant.

Chiefs – Hard to know. Were they unlucky, or actually terrible last year? Probably a little of both.

Actual finish: Last. Yeah, turns out they were actually terrible. The Chiefs’ point differential was an astonishing -214, which is them losing by almost two touchdowns a week, every week. The Chiefs have a few good players, but they’re a long way from being good.

Raiders – Did some necessary culling, but still employ Carson Palmer.

Actual finish: Third. 4-12 isn’t really anything to be proud off, but it was going to be a transition year for the Raiders anyway. The process is correct: let go of overpaid veterans, and let the youngsters grow at a good rate. They will get beat on for a couple years yet, I figure.

NFC

EAST

Giants – I don’t know.

Actual finish:  Second. I sure don’t.

Eagles* – Really, I have no idea.

Actual finish: Last. And by a country mile. Despite some high-profile talent, the Eagles had a miserable season, which led to the firing of Andy Reid. I expect a couple of transition years before they’re good again, unless Michael Vick finds the fountain of youth (or a potion of invulnerability).

Cowboys – I’m historically bad at picking this division.

Actual finish: Third. Huzzah! Two games out of first, and in the playoff race until the last couple of weeks, but the Cowboys didn’t have quite enough to play with the big boys. If they can consistently play to their talent level, they can win this division. But then, what team can’t say that?

Redskins – Feel good about this spot, despite an obvious improvement at QB.

Actual finish: First. This sentence is especially hilarious to read in hindsight (which is part of the point of this, really). The improvement at QB ended up making the Redskins relevant again, though Griffin’s injury puts some questions as to how good they’ll be next year.

NORTH

Packers – Won’t be as lucky, but could win four fewer games and still be the class of the division.

Actual finish: First. Not a tough one to pick either, though the Packers still have the same problems they’ve always had the last few years: defense and the running game. Aaron  Rodgers is probably the best QB in football, and they have great receivers. They’re the champ until they’re not.

Bears – Close last year until Cutler went down.

Actual finish: Third. No surprises here, either, though there’s more leaks in Chicago than a competent backup for Cutler. Firing the coach was a bit of a surprise after 10-6. Should be in playoff contention again next year under Marc Trestman, even with the defense aging.

Lions – Will be right there with the Bears, just feel like they take a step back this year.

Actual finish: Last. Right on the thinking, but wasn’t agressive enough in predicting a step back. Another team with high-profile talent, but unable to put it together consistently. The Lions need some help on defense if they’re going to jump back into the race.

Vikings – Not as strong defensively as they used to be, and growing on the other side of the ball.

Actual finish: Second, got second wild card. Adrian Peterson carried an otherwise below average team into the postseason. He’s the best running back in football by far, and returned amazingly from a season ending injury. The Vikings have some defensive pieces, and an unsettled quarterback situation, but should be in the mix beneath the Packers again next year.

SOUTH

Falcons – Same ol’ Falcons: Win the division, quick playoff exit. See no reason for that to change.

Actual finish: First. The Falcons DID win a playoff game, narrowly avoiding a historic collapse against the Seahawks before succumbing to the 49ers in similar fashion. A stouter defense to complement a very explosive offense would go a long way in preventing future playoff exits, but they should be great for a while yet.

Saints* – All signs point to “struggle”.

Buccaneers – Can’t be as bad as they were last year.

Panthers – Could be, but on an upward trajectory.

Actual finish: Second (tie). A three-way tie for 7-9 in this mishmash means none of them get separate lines. The Saints DID struggle, the Buccaneers did improve despite a late swoon, and the Panthers needed some cheap wins late to sneak into the tie. I would probably order the division the same for next year, but we’ll have to see what the offseason holds.

WEST

49ers – Like the Pack, won’t be nearly as lucky this year, but won’t need to be.

Actual finish: First. Though they lost the Super Bowl, the future is still bright in San Francisco. Colin Kaepernick has turned their QB situation from a detriment to a strength, and the defense continues to be excellent, despite some troubling signs in the playoffs.

Seahawks – Feel like they’ll be closer to the 49ers than most think, depending on whether their offense is any good.

Actual finish: Second, won first wild card. After a slow start, the Seahawks finished strong under young QB Russell Wilson, and they should be in contention for a few years, as they have a very young core. Though they had a disappointing showing in the playoffs against Atlanta, the season was a huge success for them, and they should be very pleased with their direction.

Cardinals – Kind of like the Jags: Not sure what they’re good at.

Actual finish: Last. The Cardinals can play a little defense, but their QB situation got bad in a hurry when Kevin Kolb (already a question) went down. They replaced former Steelers offensive co-ordinator Ken Whisenhunt with former Steelers offensive co-ordinator Bruce Arians in the hopes of making Kolb competent, but it’s hard to see that happening.

Rams – I remember when they were good. Been a while, huh?

Actual finish: Third. Though it was hard to know which Rams team would show up from week to week, they had some strong games this year, and should also be pleased with their progress. Though their division has become tough, with some improvement and additions on offense they should be back in the mix soon, depending on Sam Bradford’s progression.

FOOTBALL 2012

It’s football season, which is Mom’s favourite time of the year!**

* for wildcards.

AFC

EAST

Patriots – Because their management is way better than the Sawx.

Bills* – Wishcasting, certainly. But assuming the defenses are a saw-off, I like Ryan Fitzpatrick…

Jets – …more than Marktim Sancheztebow.

Dolphins – May actually pass the Jets, if things break right. Too bad they’re playing a rookie QB.

 

NORTH

Steelers – Terrified of this season for them- old on defense, O-line still awful, Ben already hurt- but still a clear favourite.

Ravens* – Again assuming defensive equality (with the Steelers), their QB is worse.

Bengals – Some hope, but let’s see them beat a good team. Could sneak into a wildcard.

Brown – Still the Browns, thankfully.

 

SOUTH

Texans – Thought about picking them last year, didn’t have the balls. Don’t need ’em this time. To pick the Texans, I mean.

Titans – Mostly by default, I think this is a step back year under a younger QB.

Jaguars – Not sure what they’re good at any more.

Colts – They’ll need to be Luck-y to get higher. Eh? Eh?

 

WEST

Broncos – Assuming Peyton Manning doesn’t snap his neck. Might be an 8-8 season again.

Chargers – Getting older, not better. The Rivers will soon run dry here (BAHAHA alright no more puns)

Chiefs – Hard to know. Were they unlucky, or actually terrible last year? Probably a little of both.

Raiders – Did some necessary culling, but still employ Carson Palmer.

NFC

 

EAST

Giants – I don’t know.

Eagles* – Really, I have no idea.

Cowboys – I’m historically bad at picking this division.

Redskins – Feel good about this spot, despite an obvious improvement at QB.

 

NORTH

Packers – Won’t be as lucky, but could win four fewer games and still be the class of the division.

Bears – Close last year until Cutler went down.

Lions – Will be right there with the Bears, just feel like they take a step back this year.

Vikings – Not as strong defensively as they used to be, and growing on the other side of the ball.

 

SOUTH

Falcons – Same ol’ Falcons: Win the division, quick playoff exit. See no reason for that to change.

Saints* – All signs point to “struggle”.

Buccaneers – Can’t be as bad as they were last year.

Panthers – Could be, but on an upward trajectory.

 

WEST

49ers – Like the Pack, won’t be nearly as lucky this year, but won’t need to be.

Seahawks – Feel like they’ll be closer to the 49ers than most think, depending on whether their offense is any good.

Cardinals – Kind of like the Jags: Not sure what they’re good at.

Rams – I remember when they were good. Been a while, huh?

** – not really.

Why I love sports

The St. Louis Cardinals won the World Series last night.

I’d say there’s a good chance that some of you reading that factoid don’t give a lick. I did, though. I watched it with Dennis, after an impromptu appearance on Mom and Dad’s curling team, while consuming unhealthy food at close to 10 pm. He’d taped what would be the final game of the series, and waited for me to watch it with him, even though I’d been called away and we had to start later.

I love sports. I love playing sports, though I indulge that less now than I would have when I was younger. It’s limited to frisbee in the spring/summer, curling in the fall/winter, and occasional forays into other ones when the mood strikes, or someone has the time to gather a large group of adults (which is, as Wash from Moneyball would say, “incredibly hard”). But I also enjoy watching sports. Professional sports, mostly; the quality of other levels is fun if I’m watching live, but I’ve little time to indulge that beyond passing knowledge.  I could engage someone in conversation about baseball, football, hockey, and basketball, and discuss it in some depth, depending on their interest.

I don’t have a lot of friends who are as into following sports as I am, which has earned the occasional friendly prod on the subject. It’s a huge part of why I’ve taken to Twitter- when games are on, it’s like a giant sports bar (without the high-priced beer), and I love being able to find people who are as interested in my teams as I am, and bantering with them as things are happening. I’ve gotten a lot smarter about how I view sports because of it, and met a lot of amazing people as well.

So how does someone like me, who fits the geek profile to a T, get interested in sports?

*****

The answer isn’t simple. There’s appeal in how they’re played, certainly. I like the grace and athleticism of basketball, and it’s free-flowing nature. I like the blend of power and speed that hockey has, and maintain that playoff hockey is the best of any sport. I like the strategy of football, and the admittedly visceral appeal of a well-executed tackle, when one guy beats the stuffing out of another. I like the tension and skill of baseball; as one smart person said, “Baseball is boring, until it isn’t.”

I can certainly credit my dad with instilling the love of sports in me. He watched and played baseball while I was growing up, and I fondly remember moments where Dennis and I were playing catch with him, or watching his softball games, and wondering why the ball for THAT was bigger than baseball. I remember those absurd socks we had to wear for little league baseball, and wanting to pitch but being too scared to raise my hand when the coach asked. Even now, I enjoy talking sports with him, telling him how my football picks are going (not good of late), or riffing on something the Jays did recently. One of my secret joys when we lived with Alex was when I was watching sports, and having him ask questions about rules or strategy, and me trying to explain how a particular part of it worked. I liked passing that on, and watching him understand (sometimes), as we were connected in that shared understanding.

There’s other reasons for other sports: Dennis and I developing an interest in basketball during our teen years and playing in rec leagues, drifting more into football and hockey later on, Twitter focusing my love for the Jays and giving it room to breathe, appreciating the strategy of curling after joining a team and learning the game, and how being in Calgary for the Flames Stanley Cup finals run on ’04 was an amazing experience as a fan, and one I’ll never forget.

But some of the reason I love sports- that ANYONE loves sports- is that anything can happen.

*****

Let’s bring it back to the Cardinals, who won the World Series. That’s the championship of Major League Baseball, for those unaware. They’re a great underdog story.

On August 24th, with barely over a month to go in the season, they were 10.5 games out of a PLAYOFF spot, of even contending for a championship, based on their record so far in the season. Most people had written them off, knowing they’d need to go on an incredible run to even have a chance, and they had struggled quite a bit of late. So they won a few games, made up some ground.

On September 13th, with two weeks to go in the season, they were still 4.5 games out, and still written off by most analysts as not having much of a chance of making it. And rightfully so, given how much time was left, and how much ground they had to make up. Them (and the Rays, in the American League) were almost making it almost interesting, but not quite there. The Red Sox and the Braves could, as the narrative went, start preparing for playoff games.

I’ve gotten a lot smarter as a fan in the last few years. Mostly with baseball, but I’m learning in all sports as well. The evolution of statistical analysis has changed how people watch different games, and how teams evaluate players. In almost any situation, in any sport, you can find a breakdown telling you exactly what you should do, and what’s mostly likely to happen given the players involved. In having this analysis, you can better position your team to win. It’s been a positive evolution, in my mind.

But even in that, there’s still room for the unexpected, for it to amaze us.  And that is some of why we watch.

September 28th, 2011, was the last day of the baseball season. The Cardinals had managed to tie the Braves for the final playoff spot in the National League, and the Rays with the Red Sox in the AL. They weren’t playing each other, but they might the next day, if everything fell right. I was at home, watching it all, delighted with the chaos that was ensuing. The Braves and Sox were collapsing. The Rays and Cardinals were surging. They’d made a show of it, despite the predictions of most involved.

It was an amazing night of baseball. Three of the four teams had games that went down to the wire. Sportsnet was smart, adjusting their programming so they could show highlights from all the games, flipping back and forth as they ended, and showing the incredible moments as they happened, with leads flipping back and forth late, as some of the games went into extra innings, and the tension mounted. It was, oddly enough, the future-champion Cardinals who were boring, shutting out the Houston Astros 5-0 to guarantee at least a tiebreaker game with the Braves for the last spot.

I don’t need to tell you how it ended, do I? All this talk about underdogs, and anything being possible?

*****

The Rays got bounced quickly, but the Cardinals kept on. Beat the heavily favoured Phillies in the first round. Beat the less-heavily favoured Brewers in the second. And beat the mostly favoured Rangers in the World Series to capture the crown.

So many things had to go right for them to get there, let alone to win it all. They beat Phillies’ all-everything ace Roy Halladay 1-0 in the deciding game of the first round.  Milwaukee’s pitchers self-immolated at the wrong time. They came back on Texas TWICE in game 6, and triumphed in extra innings. After that, game 7 seemed like a foregone conclusion.

There’s other reasons I watch different sports, obviously: I’m attached to particular teams/players, I enjoy talking about strategy or predicting what’s going to happen, or I like watching incredible feats of athleticism/skill. But even as much as I am a stats hound, and like seeing smart teams do things in smart ways, I know I enjoy the idea that in any sport, on any day, you never know what’s going to happen. And that can be fun, can’t it?

FUTBOL 2011

Something actually written on the way later, promise. WHO’S READY FOR SOME FOOTBALL?! * for wildcards!

AFC

East

Patriots – The champs until they’re not the champs of this division, reload as well as anyone.

Jets* – I don’t like it any more than you do, but that defense will keep them in games.

Dolphins – No idea what to make of them.

Bills – Fitzpatrick is actually good, but he needs some help.

North

Steelers – Getting long in the tooth on D, still better than Ravens, weak schedule.

Ravens* –  See above. Need some breaks (possibly literal) to win the division.

Browns – Lurking once one of the higher two fall off. Colt McCoy can play.

Bengals – On the one hand, they can’t be much worse. On the other hand, they could be.

South

Texans – Leery of the bandwagon. But I think they get it this year.

Titans – Textbook ‘transition’ year.

Colts – This is where it ends, this is where it ends…

Jaguars – Garrard wasn’t taking them anywhere, but neither will McCown.

West

Chargers – Start awful every year, but again the clear favourite.

Chiefs – Figure last year was more ‘mirage’ than foundation, but not bad.

Broncos – Kyle Orton’s okay, Fox can coach. Now need some players.

Raiders – Fired a (modestly) successful head coach. That always works.

NFC

East

Eagles – I don’t think Vick’s the QB in 3 years, but he’s good for now.

Cowboys* – Set up for a nice rebound year.

Giants – Got sledgehammered by the injury bug in the preseason, and didn’t really improve.

Redskins – Rex Grossman went to the Super Bowl! He must be good!

North

Packers – Got unlucky with injuries, and still won the Super Bowl. They’re a terrifying team.

Lions – Stafford’s made of glass, but that defense will cover some holes.

Vikings – Is a washed-up McNabb better than a washed-up Favre? We’ll find out!

Bears – Lucky last year. Won’t be this time.

South

Saints – Improved enough to pass the Falcons…

Falcons* – …who should still make the postseason.

Buccaneers – On the upswing, though the record may not reflect it. Looming if there’s any injuries higher up.

Panthers – Brought back the core of a 2-14 team, added a shiny new QB. That’ll be good for what, four wins?

West

Rams – Not the Greatest Show On Turf, but still pretty fun to watch.

Cardinals – A lot hinges on whether Kevin Kolb is good. No one’s really sure.

Seahawks – Apparently won a playoff game. BOLLOCKS, I say.

49ers – Yeah.

Redemption, redux

As a writer, the idea of redemption is one of my favourite themes. It’s powerful, when written correctly, and done in a believable way, when you relate to the character. And after watching him hit bottom, see him get all the way back.

Been something of a hot topic in football the last couple of weeks, with Ben Roethlisberger’s Steelers going to the Super Bowl. I see some parallels to what happened with Tiger Woods, which I mused on some time back– parallels about the entitlement of his position and the incredible focus needed to do what he does blinding the morals.

(There are, uh, obvious differences as well, before I get yelled at. While Tiger’s indiscretions were violating the sanctity of marriage, Roethlisberger’s alleged indiscretions- being accused of raping a 20 year old girl in a bar in Georgia- were much more serious.)

So, the ground will get walked on over and over as we lead up to the biggest of football games of the year: Has Roethlisberger been redeemed, either in play or off the field? Have the fans “forgiven” him? And so on and so forth.

It’s obvious to most that what someone does in an athletic arena should have very little bearing on what we think of them personally. One year and a few scrambles haven’t made people forget the events of last March, where Roethlisberger allegedly committed his assault. The Steelers, an organization with a reputation  as “family” and “blue collar” (deserved or not), had traded lead reciever Santonio Holmes for a fifth round pick when he violated the league’s substance abuse policy, and there was a lot of talk of them possibly trading Big Ben as well.

Though the woman elected not to proceed to court, Roethlisberger was suspended for six games for violating the NFL’s conduct policy, a suspension that was reduced to four by the commissioner later on.

Redemption keeps coming up in the NFL these days. Former dog-killer Michael Vick is in the Pro Bowl, and Big Ben is repping the AFC in the Super Bowl with his team for the third time in six years. So Ben’s a good player, on a good team, might be a dynasty, one of the all time greats, et cetera, et cetera.

While I understand the narrative appeal of linking the idea of Roethlisberger winning a championship- the height of a professional player’s accomplishment in his sport- with him having come ‘all the way back’, it does give me some pause. Does him being successful at his job mean we should see him as a better person? Does it MAKE him a better person? I don’t know the answer. Just as I don’t know what really happened in that bar last March.

But I don’t think I’m going to worry about Big Ben’s alleged redemption tomorrow, because I don’t think there’s going to be any. I’m just going to watch some football.

On FOOTBALL and rivalries

This is an interesting day.

Three games of football left in the NFL season (I’m not counting the Pro Bowl), two of which are happening today. It’s unique in that both the Packers (Dennis’ favourite team) and the Steelers (my favourite team) are still involved, and could potentially play in the Super Bowl against each other in two weeks. Both of our teams are favored, though I’m more wary of the Steelers advancing, as they have some injury trouble I’m worried about.

Football’s popularity in the US is fascinating to me, and I worry about how a pending lockout (with the NFL’s collective bargaining agreement set to expire after this year). It seems to me that given the NFL’s popularity in struggling economic times, that neither side should be inclined to kill the golden goose. But they’re looking to. The owners want 18 game seasons (with two exhibition games instead of four), and the players are digging in to resist that and other changes with all their might.

Not here to really go into that, I wanted to talk about the real games today, and why the NFL is so popular. It seems to me that having one game a week helps- you’re not overexposed, and each game seems like more of an event when you have time to build up to it, analyze it, and then deconstruct it afterwards, as so many people (like me) are prone to doing. This is part of why the Superbowl IS such an event, and draws even non-fans to parties. I’ve always maintained it’s more about the event than the game- which is usually average at best, and never what it’s hyped up to be.

(I despise people who say they “watch for the commercials”, or the halftime show, which hasn’t been good as long as I can remember. I get it if you’re not a football fan, and need some way to counter the hype, but don’t be that wannabe anti-sports elitist on a day that isn’t yours. You’re probably smarter in other ways, you’ve already got that.)

As we’re at the conference championships, with Dennis’ and my team still in it, there are four scenarios which could play out. Let’s break ’em down, in order of my own preference:

1) Packers/Steelers

This is the one. Armageddon At The Church Household. The Madden game that Dennis and I occasionally play, where I inevitably take him to school with the OMG BLITZ and put Aaron Rodgers on his back, beating him soundly. In real life, however, this would be a very fun matchup.

Beyond the trash talk and the likely fireworks in Dennis and I watching this game together, this would make Peter King’s SI prediction come true- a football prognosticator getting preseason predictions right is a little bit unheard of in this business, so I imagine he’ll bring it up if he hasn’t already (which he probably hasn’t yet, afraid of jinxing it- sports people are funny that way, hockey most of all)

And it would be a fun game, in a Dallas dome. There’s a lot of similarities: Good QBs in their prime who can take some hits, fast receivers (save for Hines Ward of the Steelers and Donald Driver of the Packers, veteran leaders who’ve taken lesser roles) and they both play a 3-4, though the Steelers play with more of a ‘zone blitz’ scheme than the Packers’ man-to-man. The Steelers are better defensively, while the Packers are probably stronger on offense. I don’t recall offhand if the Packers and Steelers have ever met in the last few years, so there’s not really a rivalry to build on (well, not one that’s built in Madden). I like that, though. Build something new.

I’ll admit, I wouldn’t like the Steelers chances in that game. Their offensive line is a little demolished (bad for when the Packers blitz, which they do), and if there’s a defensive weakness, it’s in the secondary, where their CBs aren’t great in coverage, and probably can’t contain the Packers’ receivers. Troy Polamalu had an awful game against the Ravens, which is bad because he’s usually a game changer. He’s hurt, but maybe shouldn’t be playing, with how many tackles he missed.

But yeah, that’s the one we’re pulling for.

2) Bears/Steelers

Hoping my team gets in- I’d like this matchup against the Bears better, since I’ve been picking against the Bears all year. Just don’t think they’re much of a team, and more mirage than actual substance. The Bears’ corners can be beaten by speed receivers, and Jay Culter is Jekkyl-and-Hyde on offense. He throws a lot of picks, and their line has troubles protecting, much like the Steelers.

Their defense has returned to being great, and I imagine a lot of the media coverage coming up to the Super Bowl would focus on the similarities between the two teams historically: Great, hard nosed defenses, running the football, great linebackers, et cetera, et cetera. The thought of the Steelers kicking to Devin Hester terrifies me, their special teams are mediocre at best. The difference here is the Steelers’ advantage at the skill positions, and the fact they’re not secretly terrible.

(I’m so bitter about the Bears, they killed me a lot of weeks in my football pool. The upside about this scenario is it would make Micky’s head explode, I don’t think he could cheer for either team.)

3) Packers/Jets

Otherwise known as the “Screw You, Brett Favre” Bowl. I think this would be the league’s second favourite choice, after Packers/Steelers.

Despite the complete lack of black-and-gold, I secretly wouldn’t mind this one either. I think this would give the media the perfect chance to tie a bow on Brett Favre’s career and move past the media hog, though it would give him two more weeks of spotlight attention, which is a definite minus. I am curious as to who he’d back, given how he left both teams. Probably the Packers.

There’s that intrigue, which’ll play into a lot of storylines. Brash Jets head coach Rex Ryan didn’t play the Packers this year, so I don’t know if he’ll let his team talk trash all through the week, or stay quiet as he has for the matchup against the Steelers (one of the underreported aspects of the last little while- how the Jets kept yapping about the Pats, but are mostly keeping their silence for the Steelers. Lends credence to the theory that the trash talk is more strategic than actual ego, though the Jets DO have an ego).

I like the Packers in this matchup too. They don’t run well, but historically you don’t need a phenomenal running game to win the Super Bowl- they can do that enough to keep the Jets honest. Though Ryan and the Jets should have some great schemes for Rodgers and the Packers on defense, I think Rodgers has the receivers to pick them apart. And can you imagine the blitzing Pack D against Mark Sanchez? Oh man.

It’d be a close game, but another celebratory one for Dennis, I figure.

4) Bears/Jets

Probably my least favourite of the matchups, since none of our teams are involved. The league’s actually in good no matter who makes it- three franchises with a lot of history and ‘mystique’, and one (New York) which is in a huge market with a pretty boy QB in Sanchez.

With all that in mind, I think this would be fairly evenly matched, and a decent enough game to watch. Two inconsistent offenses against two playmaking defenses- would be some turnovers and huge hits. Two QBs who need some things to break right to be playing well. And I seem to recall the Jets punter being awful, so Bears return man Devin Hester might get some chances.

Still, I’d favor the Jets in this matchup. I don’t think the Bears can protect Cutler against the Jets blitzing defense, and with a toss-up at QB, I’d give the offensive advantage to the Jets for them having better skill players (and a better offensive line).

—–

Going over to Dad’s to watch the games today. Should be good, with the armageddon scenario in play, but interesting no matter how it hashes out.

Why? Because it’ll decide the Super Bowl, which is an event no matter who’s playing. Weren’t you paying attention?

FOOTBALL

Jumping on the bandwagon started by Micky and Dennis, in one sentence, no-record form, as is my tradition. * for wildcard!

AFC

East:

New England – Belichick and company declining, but still the top dog.

Miami – Only slightly better than the Jets from here.

NY Jets – Rex Ryan’s boys  less talented than they think against a harder schedule.

Buffalo – Eeyah. Let’s move on.

North:

Baltimore – Good enough to win this division.

Pittsburgh* – Fanboying, to be sure, but…

Cincinnati – …Palmer’s not nearly as good as he used to be, and the Bengals aren’t sneaking up on anyone this time.

Cleveland – Holmgren DID watch some of Delhomme’s game film from the last couple of years, right?

South:

Indianapolis – Manning’s won a Super Bowl, figure we can let him lose one too.

Houston* – Everyone’s sleeper pick for about the tenth year in a row. Maybe they make it this time. Maybe not.

Tennessee – Not far off the pace… don’t know if Young and Johnson are as good this year.

Jacksonville – Were they good at some point? They might have been.

West:

San Diego – Mostly by default, but this is a good team anyhow.

Oakland – This year’s chic pick as a sleeper, not bad in a weak division.

Denver – Bad signs in the offseason for the second year in a row… don’t think they get lucky again.

Kansas City – Some progress, but still several pieces away.

NFC

East:

Dallas – More sizzle than steak- which really isn’t new.

Philadelphia* – I like these guys every year, and they never seem to be as good as I think. Maybe a new QB changes that… though probably not.

NY Giants – They won a Super Bowl at some point. I guess that’s something.

Washington – Need a year to get everyone together.  Very tight division.

North:

Green Bay – Apparently Rodgers was watching Vikings/Saints at a bar last year, and cheering for the Saints win. Attaboy.

Minnesota – Favre doesn’t get the magic two years in a row, and leaves another team with fans calling for his exit.

Chicago – Intriguing with Martz running the offense, but not enough to back him up.

Detroit – On the right path in a tough division.

South:

New Orleans – Some fall off, but no real Super Bowl hangover for these guys.

Atlanta* – Is Matt Ryan for real, or will Micky ultimately be correct? This year might tell.

Carolina – Matt Moore or the Notre Dame guy? Doesn’t matter, they’ll still be 5-11 or something like that.

Tampa Bay – They’re young, so they’ve got that going for them.

West:

San Francisco – I’m wary of this bandwagon. Very wary…

Seattle – …but no one else stands out in this division.

Arizona – Derek Anderson? Seriously? Did Matt Leinart hit a pedestrian or something? Flip off a box of kittens?

St. Louis – Another team in the right direction, but needing a lot more to get there.

putting it on paper…

Steelers by six.