Process and results

(Non-sports folk can skip to the first ‘*****’, I’ll try and time the break there.)

One of the fascinating baseball stories of the last month or so has been the Boston Red Sox. The Atlanta Braves could also be in there, but they don’t benefit from overpowering media coverage (even in this day and age), or a market that only has New York as it’s rival in terms of size and reach.

For those unaware of the story, the Red Sox (and the Braves) had a large lead on a playoff spot in the American League at the beginning of September. It would have been nearly impossible for anyone to catch them. And, sure enough, the Rays did- culminating in a final day of the season that was, to put it mildly, historic for several teams involved.

The aftermath has been unimaginable- the Red Sox have changed their manager and their GM, and columnists, bloggers, and analysts, are going through the season with a fine tooth comb looking for answers. And with the result having been the Sox not making the playoffs, what happened is getting taken apart.

As a Blue Jays fan, I can’t help but be delighted by the chaos. This can only be good for my team. As a fan of baseball- and someone whose fandom has taken a lean towards statistical analysis- it’s hard for me to be happy at what I saw. It was a 162 game season. If the Red Sox win TWO more games- or perhaps even one- this might have been avoided. Does that mean that all the supposed “problems” with the Sox didn’t exist? If they make the playoffs, do the manager and the GM still have their jobs?

*****

Let’s swing it off sports for a while.

My statistical thinking in baseball has taken a broader tack, as it may on occasion: the ideas of good process, and good results, and how one doesn’t necessarily equate to the other. At least, in baseball.

But let’s apply it generally, with a couple of important questions, at least for me:

1) If we have a result that we wanted, does that mean our process to get the result was good?

2) If we have a result we DON’T want, does that mean our process was bad?

There are obvious examples of where a seemingly good result doesn’t reward the process that gave it. If we were dishonest in achieving our goal, then it typically comes collapsing down like a house of cards once there’s any kind of review of that. I’ve had the debate with people, who asked if we lied to convert someone to the Christian faith, and THEIR faith was true, would that be something we should do? And my (seemingly pat) answer was that if we had a God who values honesty, he wouldn’t allow someone to have a faith that was based on dishonesty.

I’m someone who questions my own processes a lot, especially when the results aren’t what I expected.

I have a job that I didn’t think I’d have, and am advancing mostly because I’m intelligent and capable enough. It’s not a result I expected. I’m making the process up as I go along, essentially. I don’t really have a career plan (shhh, don’t tell my boss). But I’m there. And if you told me five years ago I’d be here, I’d have chuckled mirthfully, shook my head, and walked back to my computer to go play some more Out Of The Park baseball.

It’s a GOOD result. But not a repeatable process, or one I’d recommend to anyone.

I’ve been on a couple of dating sites the last year, after admitting to at least partial defeat on my own aptitude in finding women. Though that’s a rant in itself- I’m not going to date anyone at work, I’m not someone who’s going to go out and pick someone up, and my other circles are mostly lacking in available candidates. But there was one where I liked the process. It was thorough, thoughtful, and reasoned in how it “matched up” people.

I liked the process, though. I even met a couple of gals there, over coffee or drinks or whatever standards we’d set up. It didn’t work out, as evidenced by my continued griping on the subject. So we’re trying something different. But the lack of results there made me wonder if the process was good.

Baseball has moved in a direction where statistical analysis is as important or more important than a manager’s feel of a particular situation, and for the most part, that’s good. Sounder decisions are being made in the game, and people are learning a lot more about it. But there is value in knowing that for all the stats in baseball, it IS played by people- and that makes it unpredictable. Much like life itself.

They say that insanity is trying the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result, but I don’t know if that’s always true. In a universe where people, places, and expectations are constantly shifting, trying a good process in a different spot might well get you a different result.

Advertisements

3 thoughts on “Process and results

  1. Katrina Allard

    Deciding to live your life via the Scientific Method is a mistake in my opinion. It ignores opportunity, which knocks and waits, but not for long. Sure if you can do a 300 year study you can find a few commonalities that will point the way to why something worked or failed, but we don’t live that long, not these days anyways.

    I have always opened any interesting doors in life, even though many were slammed in my face. You see, getting 67 slammed in your face doesn’t really matter when one opens on 68 that turns out to be golden. The real secret here is to be fearless, and to be patient through disappointment.

    Who really cares how many times you failed in the past? It only takes one success to change everything. Although the overly cautious will point out that the reverse can also be true – they are forgetting that there are always more doors out there to check into — if you don’t ever give up.

    Plus it’s always personally amusing to find that you are good at something you never would have considered before. Be careful or you might enjoy it, succeed wildly and…. Oh hell, — what’s so wrong with that?

  2. DaveC Post author

    I wouldn’t dare live life strictly by the scientific method, but applying the thinking in a lot of areas brought me some thought here.

    I wish I could be fearless. I’m not, and I can’t always help that. Failure and worry eat at me, as emasculating as that is to admit. Once I GET to that 68th door, it’s worth it, but I continue to struggle with the journey.

    I challenge myself, it’s just different than some people would measure it.

  3. Katrina Allard

    If you can’t be fearless, be persistent. And who said it wouldn’t be a struggle?

    men,…. geez!

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s